Excerpts Writings From JJ @vwaptrader1, More Interviews, Trading Essays

From The Desk of Trade Beautiful – Bottom, Bottom, Bottoms!

$TWTR is making me feel like I am in a Lizzo video right now.

Let’s talk about Bottoms and whether or not we are in one.

Just as in real life no one likes a flat bottom. The rounder the bottom the better and it looks like the $SPX has not stepped foot in the gym in months.

First things first, unless someone hires me as a TA this is just for educational and informational purposes only.

Let me preface this by saying there is always a bull market somewhere. Energy and grain have been doing extremely well. A lesson for newer traders or maybe stubborn ones, it is ok to leave your beloved tech and growth stocks and move over to a new sector when they are not working. I give you permission.

In a sea obsessed with bottoms everyone is looking to “nail” the bottom. Let them at it. A broken clock can be right twice a day. Our job is to, especially if you want to stay in this career long term, figure out the truth by reading what is in front of us. The charts.

Today I am not going to speak on inflation, CPI, QE, Investors reevaluating based on P/E or anything to that nature. These are all lagging imho. All that matters to me is what the charts are telling me. I really don’t care why. My time is better spent elsewhere.

So what pattern were technicians looking at wayyy before CPI etc?

What’s that? Try again.

You Got it. Classic topping pattern Head & Shoulders.

Looking at the chart we can clearly see the H&S forming and the confirmation of the break was 4300.

3800 has been a massive talking point between experts, because it is the 38.2% retracement area. I adore measured moves. It is like ballet. Poetic justice if you will lol.

So taking into account the March 2020 lows we can see the 50% retracement would put us at 3500. This doesn’t mean we cannot bounce around.

Let’s take a quick look at the largest weighing company in the S&P $APPLE.

With 7% of the S&P , trading 26x its forward earnings and having just broken support conforming a double top formation I can safely say this adds to the case of the bottom is not in

Take a look at the measured move targets below on the break of $151.50.  Bullish case if reclaims this level and holds, as there will be a lot of trapped shorts expecting more downside.  

Remember, we let the charts tell us the story and we allow the patterns to work themselves out.  Every rally begins with an end to selling pressure and every selloff comes after bullish action, so it is important to not get tied into a bias.  

I really hope you have enjoyed this quick article!

Please feel free to reachout to me on Twitter https://twitter.com/tradebeautiful to chat stocks, trading, technical analysis, and to let me know if you would like more . Send me a message or tweet of what you would like me to cover next!

Til next time.

Trade safe. Trade Beautiful.

Les xoxo – @tradebeautiful (Twitter)

Beyond The Trades is sponsored by our good friends at Microefutures.com / EquitiesETC.com

Excerpts Writings From JJ @vwaptrader1

Trading in Uncertain Market Conditions – from the Desk of vwaptrader1

Trading in uncertain market conditions – from the desk of vwaptrader1

The market has changed drastically.  We have to adapt our style of trading and manage risk and expectations.  To thrive in uncertainty follow these rules as a start and remember that risk management is the MOST important thing in these trying times.

  1.  Time of day.  For new traders with limited skills in trading, the market open in RTH is not wise.  Let the market open and let the order flow establish itself.  This means letting the big traders do the work and take on the fast volatile new orders that come in off the open.  For more seasoned traders who have the skill and account size, size down so you don’t get whipsawed with SIZE.  New traders should trade Globex where the price action is slower and you can see moves coming and reacting.
  2. Before trading watch the market. Figure out where inventory is.  Where longs or shorts are trapped.  Look at the structure and how the price action is.  Is the market moving fast or slow? Is the price jumping around or is it stable?  Where are the stops? How is price acting at the stops?  How many stops are sellouts taking out? Make notes of all this before you execute
  3. When looking to buy dips remember we have SUPPLY in these markets now.  This means the market will take the lowest stop before stabilizing and making a move higher.  Short sellers KNOW there is supply and will not bid the market as aggressively as they did last year when there was no SUPPLY.
  4. Make a plan for your out/ safety stop BEFORE you enter a trade so you are not caught off-guard.  
  5. Let the size traders work at extremes when markets sell-off, remember there is more supply now, let those big-money accounts take the risk, then look to execute. Being patient is allowing those big-money accounts the time to do their business.  Getting in the way means getting unnecessarily stopped out.
  6. Remember it takes TIME to clean up supply after a sell-off.  If a market has been over VWAP for 4 hours it is going to take longer than 5 minutes to clean it up when it breaks VWAP as not everyone who is trapped long over it will sell at the same time.  Allow time for the sellers to all realize they are trapped and head for the exits
  7. Be aware of margin call selling when you are taking longs.  When markets cannot hold settlement we will have margin calls.  When other asset classes sell-off we get cascading margin calls as funds sell whatever they can to avoid sending money to their brokers.  What this means for you the retail trader is DON’T GET GREEDY on longs. Sell into strength!  If you are long and the market cannot take out the first upper stop above you get out and get paid.  Always trail stops when in profit in case of selling that will hit the market like a rogue wave.  Your stops are your lifevest, do not go into storms without one.
  8. If you cannot figure out the trade, wait and watch the market will tell you what is going on.  Resist the urge to jump in and boredom trade or revenge trade.  If you have trouble doing this, reach out to one of the moderators in our room.  We are here to help.
  9. Use Globex trading to put together information so you can build trades in RTH.  Be disciplined and always make sure you think risk before reward. The markets are not going to treat bad decisions and greed kindly.  Govern yourselves accordingly.
  10. If you are having trouble with a market, size down and trade less.  The emotional wear and tear of losing money and blowing up accounts can be avoided by not pushing trades.  We have to be vigilant and smart now.  Anyone can make money in a bull market with no supply.  We have a two-sided market now so remember we have to be smarter, faster executing, and more patient to allow trades to develop.  Do not get upset if you miss a trade because you hesitated and chase it.  There will be thousands of trades for you.  
  11. Admit you are wrong when you get it wrong and get out fast!  Do not let that “ oh it may turn” get in your head.  Be savage and cut losses quickly this preserves capital.  If you get stopped out 3 times take a break and review what you got wrong.
  12. Stay flexible and learn to adapt to different market dynamics. We will see many in the upcoming weeks.

Reminder that @vwaptrader1 teaches and trades live at Microefutures.com / EquitiesETC.com Trading Room Community

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Interview w/Martin Papp – Alpha Trading Country Club

QUESTION – Thank you for taking the time to participate in the Q & A session. Would you like to share with everyone who you are, your background (current and previous career, education, etc).

Answer:
I’m Martin Papp.

I grew up in the Colorado mountains, spending much of my childhood and teens outdoors. I studied Political Science at St. Lawrence University, graduating in 2009.  I then moved to China to learn Chinese and immerse myself in at the time the fastest growing economy in the world.
There is no doubt that when I moved to China 12 years ago, living in a big city was fun, but I didn’t want to lose my connection with nature. In 2015 I founded PAPP’S TEA with the idea that tea and other herbs bring enormous value to our identity, and the relationship we have with them should not be lost in our fast-paced urban lives.
After receiving venture capital funding from BitsxBites in Shanghai, we grew to become a multimillion-dollar tea and kombucha business.  Currently PAPP’S TEA provides tea to over 400+ locations throughout China including cafes, restaurants, hotels, and ecommerce store on Taobao.  
When my son was born, my wife and I decided to relocate to United States.  Since 2020, I have become a fulltime stock trader and crypto trader as well as continue to monitor tea operations in China.  I joined a great group of traders at TrueTrader.net and learned to become a self-sufficient trader.

I launched myself into NFTs six months ago, seeing it much as an extension of my trading career and venture capital intentions for the future. I co-founded Alpha Traders Country Club, a community specifically for stock traders, crypto investors, and NFT enthusiasts.  Mint day is coming soon. LFG!

QUESTION – For our readers who may not know, you are heading up a very unique vision like NFT and Trading project called “Alpha Traders Country Club”. I will not do justice trying to explain it, so please go into detail for our readers.

Answer:

ATCC is an exclusive club of sloths expertly trained in the art of trading and finance.  A group so elite and elusive their country club can only be joined by owning an NFT from the highly coveted ATCC collection.

ATCC is a community of traders and investors that support each other, learn from each other, and help each other become better traders.

Membership is granted via the mechanism of a profile picture NFT collection of trading desk sloths expertly trained in the art of trading and finance.  One must be a holder of a Alpha Trader NFT in order to be part of the elusive country club nestled off the tropical coast of Costa Rica.

Think of our club as a cross between WALL STREET BETS and BORED APE YACHT CLUB.

We talk about all things trading, inviting industry professionals to speak on our livestream events and also host in real life events where people can mingle and make real world connections.

QUESTION – How long have you been trading (stocks, crypto, NFT’s). And are you more of a day trader, swing trader or longer term investor? What have been your biggest challenges to date?

Answer:

I personally have been trading stocks fulltime since 2020. My preferred method of trading is swing trading.  I also have long term holdings in stocks and crypto.

I started investing in NFTs at the end of 2021.

Biggest challenge of trading has been learning how to focus less on the monetary gains and more of capital preservation.

QUESTION–  What personal or professional failure/setback have you experienced in trading AND your life that has set you up for later success?

Answer:

I think my perseverance and my Dunning-Kruger exuberance has helped me never feel I fail.  Everything has always led to the next.  Sure there are many things I did not do perfectly or even well, but I did them, and that stupidity (some call courage) has led me to be successful in a lot of things I do.

In terms of failed businesses, yes, I have had two startups fail prior to successfully launching my tea company in 2015.
In 2007 I co-founded a coffee company called Buywell Coffee. We operated a few years before eventually closing.
In 2011 I co-founded a real estate investment company in China for investment in Mongolia.  Project did not take off and stopped in end of 2011.

QUESTION : This is becoming a favorite question for many – plus readers get some good gift ideas from it. What purchase of less than $100 have you made in the past year that you simply could not live without now?

Answer:

Hands down this:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B015FH0XKE?ref_=cm_sw_r_cp_ud_dp_EBNH52E2PYKGBG3TRERW

I got three of them now and have gifted all my family at least one!  Best $20 dollars I’ve spent in a long time.

QUESTION – If you could choose three dinner guests dead or alive, who would they be and why?

Answer:

Elon Musk – b/c he is the goat of entrepreneurship

Lionel Messi – b/c he is the goat of soccer, the sport I love. (play three times a week)

Robin Williams – b/c he made me laugh my whole life growing up and I would want to tell him that.

QUESTION – What are your goals for the future. Say in 5 to 10 years as the metaverse becomes more of an everyday reality for us?

Answer:

I think the entire economy will be revolutionized through tokenization of goods and services.  The assetification of all items will become prominent in mainstream businesses.

I’m not fully sold in the Virtual Reality thing taking off, but I am very bullish on Augmented Reality.

QUESTION – What advice would you give to your younger self and to someone just coming out of school (college or high school)

Answer:

The environment you surround yourself in is everything.  You become what the environment lets you become.  If you are NOT happy about where your life is or is heading. MOVE! Get yourself somewhere that will change you into a different person.

Immediately graduating from college I had a hard time finding a job. It was 2009 and job market was not great. I found a job a car sales rep in my hometown.  Did that for three months and was miserable. I read the book OUTLIERS by Malcolm Gladwell and really helped changed my perspective. I quickly realized I needed to leave the United States for the sake of my career trajectory.  Moving to China in 2009 was one of the best and most life changing decisions in my life, all based on the principle that environment dictates your success way more than most people are willing to admit.  Do you think Elon Musk could achieve what he has achieved staying South Africa? Not impossible, but highly unlikely.  Elon finding success in Silicon Valley is not a coincidence.

QUESTION – If you could have a big billboard with your favorite saying or message on it, what would it be?  And where can our readers find you on social media?  Thank you for taking the time with this interview, is there anything else you like to share with our audience?

Answer:

“There is no such thing as paranoia, even your worst fears will come true if you chase them long enough.” – Hunter S. Thompson

“Don’t be so humble, you’re not so great.” – My high school teacher, Professor X

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martin-papp/

Personal Twitter: @genalphatrading
Alpha Traders Country Club Twitter: @alphatradersNFT
http://www.alphatraderscountryclub.com

Reminder Beyond The Trades is sponsored by our good friends at Microefutures.com / EquitiesETC.com

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Interview with Mansion Room’s very own Eric “E” from Staten Island

QUESTION – Thank you for taking the time to participate in the Q & A session. Would you like to share with everyone who you are, your background (current and previous career, education, etc). 

Answer: Thank you for having me on, My name is Eric most in the Microefutures.com room just call me “E”. Living in the forgotten borough aka Staten Island, NY. In terms of careers, I feel I have done it all from being a private life guard, Helping run a Bounce House company, Delivering pizza (still doing currently), working with contractors on home repair, to now working in Quality Assurance testing software. I graduated Pennsylvania State University in 2013 with a Major in Business Management and minor in Information Technology and was lucky enough to land the position I am in currently fresh out of college.

QUESTION – For our readers who may not know, you are the so called “Captain” of the Mansion Room at Microefutures.com / EquitiesETC.com Trading room. Care to explain what exactly that is – and what is the concept of the Mansion Room in this trading community?

Answer: I am honored the Mansion room considers me the “Captain” although I do not consider myself a captain at all lol. The Mansion Room was created off an idea from a previous BYT interviewee  Matthew Mickey. When Mickey joined Microefutures.com he came with an open mind and ready to absorb every detail that was given to him. We had many one on one conversations and said we should do something where after the true Captain of our Room JJ (vwaptrader1) finishes his morning session at 11am est were traders can still watch these funky charts known as TPOs. I was all for it and soon after the Mansion room was created. 

The Mansion room is an open discussion and self moderated room that is used within the Microefutures discord channel. It is open to all users where we stream live Market Profile charts on ES, NQ, and discuss what we are seeing in the market throughout the day. As most users may not have the ability to watch TPO or may feel lost after JJ finishes in the morning. I stream in the Mansion Room and talk about what I am seeing happening with terms of inventory and price action. I do tell everyone in there I never worked on a trade desk or within Wall Street I am just hear to reiterate everything JJ has taught us.The room however is open to anyone who wants to stream and it does not have to rely on me I think they get a kick out of my heavy New York Accent. I have even had some say they are understanding and retaining more of what JJ teaches by watching the streams in the Mansion room. 

QUESTION – How long have you been trading. And are you more of a day trader, swing trader or longer term investor? What have been your biggest challenges to date?

Answer: I started my trade journey back in late 2016, I was sitting at my desk in Jersey city when a colleague of mine walked by and said have you heard about this bitcoin it’s really on a move. I replied no I never heard of it and he started to show me and tell me. So I began doing research and watched videos of candle patterns and everyday we would step out and talk about these crypto coins and try to make a few bucks flipping them. We would step out and grab a coffee and a smoke and he would go did you see Coin “NEO” and I would reply with na man check this one “TRX”. We did this for a couple of months then Dec 2017 Bitcoins big drop. Was completely wiped of all profits I made because I was chasing the rush of winning. He later left our company and haven’t talked to him since he lives in Cali. A few years passed and I was thinking to myself man there has to be another way to build a secondary income as I just started dating my now fiancée and thought if I could get back to making a few extra dollars it would be nice to put away. The year was 2018 and that is when I found option trading thanks to YouTube and google algorithms. Having the addictive personality I figured I would dive right in and see what it was all about. I saw that I can use the same candlestick patterns I studied in crypto and use them on stocks but didn’t need a whole lot of cash to get started. I was back in the market but this time instead of coins it was calls and puts. As I continued this journey I stumbled upon JJ on twitter and was so intrigued by these Market Profile charts that I dove in and he told me its the futures market and what it is all about which brings me to where I am now trading ES, NQ, and now learning the bonds. Haven’t traded crypto since that drop in 2017 and now rarely dabble in Options. 

I consider myself a scalper/day trader, I want to be in and out I am not a big fish so definitely don’t want to be swallowed by one. A quote from a YouTube video I stumbled upon once was showing how traders traded on the floor went like this “That position you are trading right now I flipped it twice, 3 times, maybe 10 times without you even knowing it happened” Thats how I trade in/out on to the next. 

Some of the bigger challenges I face is trying to overthink the market, as we discuss in the mansion the market is very simple concept of supply and demand and when trading it I tend to lose sight of that concept by thinking “okay what if this happens?” or “what if that happens?”. The over complicating a simple task is what has been my biggest challenge

QUESTION–  What personal or professional failure/setback have you experienced in trading AND your life that has set you up for later success?

Answer: 

My biggest setbacks have always been chasing the high when in profit. I have been getting better thanks to the room and the coaching that Microefutures provides for us. When I am trading the movie quote from Top Gun sticks with me always. The line when goose goes to maverick “Every time we go up there, it’s like you’re flying with a ghost.” I keep that quote written down as a way to say don’t chase the high. If we chase the high then that’s where the overtrading and revenge trading steps in and clouds judgement and miss solid entries. 

QUESTION : This is becoming a favorite question for many – plus readers get some good gift ideas from it. What purchase of less than $100 have you made in the past year that you simply could not live without now?

Answer: This is a great question and the one thing I bought myself last year was a simple exercise mat and few dumbbells. When the pandemic hit I felt trapped inside our 1 bedroom apartment, my morning routine was thrown off since we couldn’t go to the gym or anywhere. So in the winter months we bought a simple yoga mat and some dumbbells just to stay active. I feel when I lift or exercise before the day starts my mind is clear and in the right place.

QUESTION – If you could choose three dinner guests dead or alive, who would they be and why?

Answer: 3 Dinner guests that I would love to sit down with. First would be JJ (vwaptrader1) just to meet the gorilla of house street. He has helped me so much in becoming the trader I am today. My second guest would be Jesse Livermore, after reading the book “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” multiple times I would love to have a conversation with him and see how trading was done before computers. (Maybe bring my laptop and have him watch some globex tape with us). My last dinner guest would be Mark Cuban, After watching his interview with JJ and Ray on “Confessions of a Market Maker” he just seems like a great guy to hang out with and learn from his experiences. 

QUESTION – What are your trading goals – Do you always want to trade or branch out into other directions in your life?

Answer: My trading goal is to always trade but do it to my leisure. As of right now I trade as a way to make another income, down the road I want to look into more passive strategies that way I don’t need to be actively sitting at the screen to make profit. 

QUESTION – What advice would you give to your younger self and to someone just coming out of school (college or high school)

Answer: Always be humble, whether it’s in business, the market, or just in everyday life. Because the minute you think you are better than someone else is the minute you will be humbled. 

QUESTION – We hear you are getting married. When, where and do you feel your full time work and trading schedule will be impacted (how will you balance is the question all)

Answer:  Yes I am getting married in August, we are very excited and can not wait. As far as balance after the honeymoon of course I don’t feel their will be a big impact as my fiancée works in a school, and since the pandemic I have not been back in my office so the balance should remain the same way it has been *knock on wood* will have to wait and see when I do return to the office.

QUESTION – If you could have a big billboard with your favorite saying or message on it, what would it be?  And where can our readers find you on social media?  Thank you for taking the time with this interview, is there anything else you like to share with our audience?

Answer: A saying that I try to live by is “Life every day to the fullest, tomorrow is never promised.” Thank you for having me as a guest. For those wanting to follow me on social media you can find me on twitter @_Eric24 and instagram e_herrmann24

Beyond The Trades Sponsored by https://microefutures.com/ https://equitiesetc.com/ Trading Room Community

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Interview w/Trading Chick “Marina”

QUESTION - Thank you for taking the time to participate in the Q & A session. Would you like to share with everyone who you are, your background (current and previous career, education, etc). 
MARINA - Hi everyone, thank you for having me. 
As a Russian refugee during the Cold War I arrived in New York City with my parents when I was 6 years old.  20 years later I took off on a backpacking journey with no end in mind. While camping in the Tikal Mayan Ruins of Guatemala, I met my future husband, the first Guatemalan I ever met, who was camping in the next tent over. We’ve been married for over 19 years, living in Central America raising our 2 trilingual sons.I have been an entrepreneur for over 25 years. Starting out as a top fitness instructor in NYC gyms with a wanderlust, I  became a travel writer (and still host a popular travel blog today).  Combining my love of entrepreneurialism and social justice I took on the monumental project of becoming a TEDx organizer (one of the few that included teens in an outdoor venue). How do I do it all? I credit my simple “no fluff” Day Trading strategies as a professional day trader. Today, I am a sought after speaker and mentor to aspiring and seasoned traders. I stand out in the industry amongst the guru’s as one who embraces the spirituality of Day Trading and works hard to help others transform their lives one trade at a time!  I specialize in helping the true beginners to Day Trade with confidence and ease. For anyone who has a desire to learn Day Trading but has no idea where to start. I show you the best way to go from newbie to pro (trader) fast while avoiding the mistakes I made. 

QUESTION - For our readers who may not know, your are known as the "Trader Chick" on Twitter. Can you explain the story behind behind this moniker? 
MARINA - Day Trading has a lot of 'experts' , a lot of people that come for financial backgrounds, math and economic backgrounds. Which is great. However, the reality is listening to them can be intimidating, and complicated. Most of the time people get turned off by all this type of talk.
I personally did in the beginning. I was struggling for years, because of the complexities that went behind it all.
And after losing all my money several times, I had to step away. But day trading kept calling me, and I decided to erase all my charts and indicators and everything that I was being taught, and go back to the basics and simplify it. And that's when I realized day trading isn't complicated at all, and if explained in a fun way it can be accessible to everyone. 
I was a fitness instructor before a day trader and a travel writer, without any financial and math background.
Being a Trader Chick allows people to see that it's fun, and they too can do it. My monitor goes exactly with how I look at trading. And this allows so many people to also get into trading.

QUESTION - How long have you been trading. And are you more of a day trader, swing trader or longer term investor? What have been your biggest challenges to date?
MARINA - I've been interested in financial markets for over 30 years. However, day trading has been my passion for 10 years. I am a scalper. Which means I go in and out of trade positions within a few minutes. It's quick and fun and doesn't stress me out as long term holds for the day.
I've been interested in financial markets for over 30 years. However, day trading has been my passion for 10 years. I am a scalper. Which means I go in and out of trade positions within a few minutes. It's quick and fun and doesn't stress me out as long term holds for the day.
QUESTION-  What personal or professional failure/setback have you experienced in trading AND your life that has set you up for later success? 
MARINA - Day trading is one of the most in your face conflicting things you can do. It's the only one that will make you face your demons constantly. It humbles you and really makes you view the world differently. 
It shows you you either get your shit together mentally or continue living where your demons take over. 
After many losses and blaming the market, I realized that it has nothing to do with the market and it's all me. And when I decided to look at myself and work on myself everything started to change. 
I always say, Day Trading has been my greatest Master Teacher of my life. 
And when I started to work on bettering myself, mindfully, mentally I discovered a spiritualness to trading that has made me a better trader and person. 

QUESTION : This is becoming a favorite question for many - plus readers get some good gift ideas from it. What purchase of less than $100 have you made in the past year that you simple could not live without now?
MARINA - Oh that's a great question! A journal. This is my place to get out all my thoughts, frustrations, it's also a place where I write my goals and schedule. 
I refer to it several times a day and really am lost without it. 

QUESTION - If you could choose three dinner guests dead or alive, who would they be and why?
MARINA - Madonna - she was literally my (virtual) mentor from 11 years old to my mid 20's. Getting to the top and staying there is pure grit and I would love to learn from the source.
Byron Katie - Her book 'Loving What Is' changed my life. She is the only person that I would really love to do a workshop with or sit down and have a genuine chat with. And, interestingly enough right as COVID began, I was signed up for one of her intimate workshops and - of course we all know how things happened. It was canceled. 
Sara Blakely - She simply is a friend goal of mine. How she runs her family, business, life. She just seems like a person I'd love to hang out with.
QUESTION - What are your trading goals - Do you always want to trade or branch out into other directions in your life?
MARINA -Trading if done properly can be fun. HOwever, when I first began I was obsessed sitting in front of my charts for 8 - 12 hours a day, totally unsustainable. 
Today I trade 30 minutes - 1 hour a day, not even everyday, but when I feel like it. Because I'm so much more than just that. The goal always was to spend more time with my kids, start fun businesses that I love. Today I'm doing that. SO in a way, my trading goals are realized.
QUESTION - What advice would you give to your younger self and to someone just coming out of school (college or high school)
Learn work ethic. I don't care what your interests are in, without work ethic and structure you will really suffer. 
Nothing will ever beat work ethic. And unfortunately today, judging from my own kids schooling (and they go to a 'good' private school) this is something that is not taught. So go out of your way to learn this. And the rest will work out.
QUESTION - What are your thoughts on cryptocurrency - including NFT's & the Metaverse?
MARINA - I just got into crypto last year. It took me a while to stop resisting. I believe there is no way around this, it's here and I'm still at the point of learning myself. 
NFT's and Metaverse is totally new to me, and actually my kids and I are signed up for classes to learn. 
So my thoughts are, learn what this is, teach your kids about it. And then have fun with it.
QUESTION - If you could have a big billboard with your favorite saying or message on it, what would it be. 
Make Every Day An Adventure - there is no 'one day' make today day ONE. 
Thank you  for taking the time for this interview. How can our readers contact you, including on social media. And is there anything else you like for our readers to know about you?
MARINA - Thank you for having me. The best way to contact me would be via my website - https://thetraderchick.com



-- Beyond The Trades Interview Series is Sponsored by -- 

 https://microefutures.com/ - https://equitiesetc.com/
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Why I’m Bearish on Ethereum – Ms Tascha

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I’m bearish on Ethereum. – Article first appeared in TaschaLabs Daily eZine

But it may not be for the reason you think.

Transition from single chain to layer 1-layer 2 structure has large implications for ETH token valuation. And most people aren’t yet thinking this through 👇

First off I wrote abt how to value blockchain platform tokens like nation state currencies a while ago. I recommend a read cuz it’ll help you understand what I’m gonna say next, as it’s an application of same framework.

In short, think of L1 platforms like nation state economies. You need native token to pay fees in every transaction on platform just like you need USD in every economic transaction in US. The on-chain economic activities thus form fundamental demand for native token.

That means given any starting equilibrium of economy size & ETH price, if ethereum economic activities grow 10%, ETH token demand’ll grow proportionally (assuming stable token velocity). Since supply is relatively constant, that translates to proportional increase in ETH price.

This dynamic btw growth of economy & increase of token price is mechanical & doesn’t require belief in any revenue-based valuation assumptions, which are mostly memes.

Indeed data shows activity growth is single most important driver in ETH price over long run. Using # of txns as rough proxy for size of eth economy, you can see correlation btw txn growth & price growth is overwhelmingly significant— 10% txn growth implies ~13% price growth.

Note this is fundamental-driven long term relationship. Short-term price volatility is obv much bigger b/c of speculative cycles.

W/ this relationship in mind, is there any wonder why ETH price growth has stalled in last 6 mos? Tnxs have declined since May as high gas costs discourage activities & other alt L1s take off. Activity is now even lower than previous cycle peak.

Active wallets, another way to measure activity level, have also declined since May.

If it weren’t for EIP-1559 introducing token fee burns in August & putting downward pressure on supply, we’d have seen bigger ETH price drop given demand dynamics.

To solve scaling/congestion, ethereum is adding layer 2 rollups— to have eth L1 as security/settlement layer w/ contract & tnx executions done on L2s. It could boost speed & lower cost for end users, by a lot.

But as investor, all you need to care abt is this— is this structural change going to increase or decrease activities on eth L1? (Cuz activities—> demand for eth —> price growth, remember?)

By all considerations the answer is negative, at least in short-to-medium term.

Eth L1 does 1.3 million daily tnxs right now. ZK rollups can have 60k-80k tnxs in a batch before submitting to L1. If we move all end-user tnxs from eth L1 to rollups today & all L2 batches are full, that means # of tnxs on eth L1 could drop to 1/20 of current level.

You say, 1) proof verification is high value-add, complex tnx, which costs way more gas than most other tnxs.

2) there’ll be explosion of activities on L2s given lower cost. That’s the point of scaling. If L2 activities grow exponentially, it’ll boost verification needs, i.e. more activity on eth L1.

For 1), L1 verification cost per batch for zkSync rollup is 600k gas. Simple wallet tnx cost on current eth L1 is 21k gas. If a rollup batch has more than 28 simple wallet tnxs, gas cost on L1 is already lower than current. Batch has capacity for 80k tnxs. Do the math.

For 2), activity levels on popular alt L1s give useful benchmark for how much activity you can realistically expect on a new eth L2. Solana, the alt L1 w/ highest activity level rn, has a realized TPS (tnxs per second) of abt 1000 (not counting consensus voting tnxs).

Other chains have much lower realized TPS. E.g. Polygon, the success example all new eth L2s aspire to, has TPS of abt 85. Mind you, low realized TPS on these chains are not b/c of tech constraints (not yet). They can do much higher but there’s simply no higher demand from activities rn.

If one day web3 economy grows so big that numerous eth L2s operate at high capacity & continue growing at warp speed, yes that’d indeed increase activity on eth L1. But that day is not today & no eth maxi can tell you definitively when that day will be.

Btw today & promised L2 land, ethereum has to cross the no man’s land, where L2 growth is taking existing tnxs away from eth L1, while L2s don’t have enough business yet for their proof verification txns to more than compensate for activities they take away from eth L1.

While eth is crossing this no man’s land, activity growth on eth L1 would likely be stagnant or negative. That means to the left & down on our chart of activity vs price. Rational choice for eth ecosystem investor would be to sell eth & long high growth L2 tokens.

You say, what abt institutional investors? They prefer large caps w/ lower risk. So large waves of institutions coming to crypto in near future would shore up demand for BTC & ETH.

It may. But I wouldn’t keep hope too high for dumping bags on institutions, unless you truly have an abysmal opinion on their IQ.

B/c truth is people–whether institutions or individuals– are in crypto for returns, not safety, & large caps are not “safer”.

Here’s Sortino ratio for major L1s, which measures how much you’ve gained for each unit of downside risk you took. LUNA had the highest score in 2021. ETH & BTC both rank low.

There’s another concern abt ETH valuation that’s less obvious but no less important.

(BTW, like this so far? I write about ideas on investment, macro and human potential. Subscribe to my newsletter for updates .)

The network effect of L1 tokens comes from wide ownership participation of those tokens. BTC & ETH become most popular collaterals in deFi b/c almost everyone in crypto owns them. Exchange volumes are high & liquidities ample.

But 180 mn eth wallet addresses are the result of the fact that for the longest time, to use smart contract you have to own some eth.

W/ alt L1s rising that’s already less true. W/ eth L2s coming you won’t need to own eth even in ethereum’s own ecosystem. You can buy, say, ZK tokens on centralized exchange, transfer to your ZK Metamask wallet & spend ZK in ZK L2 chain, all w/o touching eth token.

In other words, as ethereum transitions from B2C to B2B model, direct interaction w/ end users may drop, which would imply lower ownership coverage, liquidity & volume for eth token. All of those are important parameters supporting token valuation.

You say, as security layer of ethereum eco, importance of eth token is paramount & surely users would value that. Yes you’re right. But if “importance” is the decisive factor for token value, ChainLink & Graph would have higher mkt caps than Doge & Shib.

Truth is “face time” w/ as many end users as possible is a precious advantage for a token. (And you should consider this when thinking of investing in any crypto project that only serves “enterprise use cases”.)

This is not just a phenomenon in crypto. In tech stocks, for example, software companies w/ mass-mkt apps have higher P/E ratio than other IT sub sectors like system software or semiconductor. B/c the former get more eyeballs even w/o necessarily having higher growth prospect.

As average investor, it’s much easier to buy stocks of Zoom or Slack—cuz you know & use them often— than investing in something like, idk…”Paragon Database Solutions”.

For a L2 to compete w/ alt L1s they need native tokens for users to rally behind & share the gains of values created on L2 platform. That means they take eyeballs away from eth just like alt L1 competitors.

You say, but other modular L1 chains have same problem. E.g. an Avalanche subnet token would dilute value accrual on AVAX too.

Yes, but AVAX, ATOM or ALGO is not valued at $400 bn mkt cap. They’re much smaller & still on high growth path of their L1 eco, any L2 add-on is not a structural change of status quo like ethereum situation. The starting equilibrium matters.

Crypto is a fast changing industry & my thinking abt ethereum case will surely continue to evolve. But hope this gives you something to ponder on.

TLDR:

  • Activity growth determines price growth for L1 tokens
  • Shifting to L1-L2 structure may mean stagnant or negative activity growth of Eth L1 in ST/MT
  • Transition from B2C to B2B model reduces exposure of Eth token to end users, negative for liquidity, volume, price

Beyond The Trades is Sponsored by the Educational & Live Trading Team at http://www.Microefutures.com / EquitiesETC.com


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Excerpts from the upcoming JJ Vwaptrader1 new book

Chapter: The Bloodhound

The US markets move fast, every day is an opportunity for a proper villain to rob you blind.

When you give a promoter stock to do a job you are handing him the fate of your deal.  Most of the time he will create a market to sell your stock off into, sell it, blame someone else such as short-sellers for depressing the price of your stock, and walk away from you.  This leaves the financier penniless having to either go clean up the market or walk away from the deal.

A bad criminal will simply take the stock and blow it out into the market.   It’s obvious and in Vancouver, it can get you killed.  The bad criminal just moves on to the next deal, he will usually deal with unsophisticated financiers and public company CEOs.   Since the criminal used offshore accounts, for the company robbed there is no recourse.   The bad criminal will hopefully have the good sense to not take stock of scary people.

A proper villain will put the stock in an account that the financier or CEO will be able to see.  This gives the CEO a sense of security due to transparency.  When he starts his operation and starts selling stock into the market the position that his employer sees will be unchanged.

As the price of the stock moves violently about, the villain will cause a huge stink, saying that he hasn’t sold a share, you can see it plain as day. “ You must have given out stock to someone else.” He will say to the CEO.  

He will completely manipulate the market.  He will show large sell orders coming in.  He will say he has $100 thousand dollars of buying coming in to clean up the market. 

When he does bring in the buy order it will actually be his.  He will sell into it from his account at another brokerage firm.  The stock will not move up.    The villain will then call the CEO and scream that someone is selling stock and his investors are getting burned.

He will do this a few times,  then he will call and say my investor is really upset. You better send him some stock to average down his price.  The CEO will then send millions of more free shares to an account that appears to be owned by a regular person.   It will show all the buy transactions in it.  The CEO will assume this is a legitimate investor.   This account will be a nominee for the villain.  Now he has even more stock in your deal.  This can happen a few times until the CEO finally gives up.  The result is that his stock will be well under a penny and he will have to do some major corporate shuffling to rebuild it.  Most of them walk away.  The investors or dumb money always get burned and are left holding WORTHLESS PAPER.  

Now the big villains don’t operate this way.  They own everything,  They are at economic risk because they pay for everything.  From the initial company, the legal the accounting.  Everything is a risk.  Then they stage a full-blown promotional campaign selling their own stock into it.  

They will use the proceeds of this to build larger and better campaigns.  This is what the good promoters do.  They own the entire deal and never give away any stock.  They pay cash for all goods and services.  They do this because they know that 0 cost stock.  Stock that has been given away has a no-cost basis.  It will always “find the bid” meaning it will always get sold at any time.


This ruins a market when you are trying to induce buying from the retail public.  Nothing scares a prospective investor more than seeing a stock go down every day.  There is no reason to buy it.   Retail investors love to see a stock going up every day. Or at least trading in a stable range.

But to get the frenzy going, to get people to chase the price higher, you must own every share and keep moving it up higher and higher.  This causes people’s greed to take over and buy it.  Surely it will keep going higher.

Good villains will build and develop a large market they can sell stock into.  They will do it over 18 to 24 months.  When finished they will have 20 to 100 million dollars to show for it.  

Now for you folks at home, this is nothing new.   It has been done since the dawn of trading.

The way stock is traded.  The actual mechanics of the market are so complex to an outsider that we literally can trade a billion dollars of stock around someone and they have no idea where it’s coming from or going to.  

Sound familiar? Look at a stock like Amazon, it just keeps going higher and higher.  The stock is very very tightly controlled by institutions,  The stock also is in limited supply.  You keep the supply tight and keep increasing demand.  Price goes up and as it goes up it induces more buying.   This is basic human nature.  People get greedy and keep buying it as it keeps producing a profit. 

 Now the people that control stocks like Amazon are huge money management firms and hedge funds.  Think of them as the financier or stock promoter.  They invest in the company usually at a discount to the market.  They set the offering price in the IPO (when the company goes public).  They place the stock with investors who they know will HOLD it for a long period of time.  This way no stock “comes back” into the market and depresses the price.

If you doubt any of this.  Take a look at the monthly stock chart of Amazon.  Take a look at the earnings of the company.  Now, remember the large money managers own Amazon for 30 year hold times, therefore, limiting the supply of stock in the open market.  There is no manipulation here but the result is similar to shutting off supply by a large shareholder in a penny stock deal.

The reason the stock keeps going up is that the three largest money management firms on the planet own the largest positions and because they manage over 14 TRILLION dollars.  

The stock chart for Amazon is a stock promoter’s dream.  It is the mother of all no supply situations

So now you know that everything is controlled you will understand why someone who understands the boring details of how the mechanics could be useful.  

The guys in the Ferraris are the flash.  The big money in the markets is made by guys you would never ever suspect.  They work in the shadows, they understand every little detail of how the system works, they then strategize on how to use those details to manipulate the price of shares.  We called them mechanics.   They were very rare and most of them always worked alone.  The details of their operations were therefore secret, this way no one could step in front of their orders to buy and sell.

How did I learn their ways? These people don’t go to bars, they don’t talk.  They take their secrets to the grave with them.  They live under the radar, drive Volvos and live in modest homes.  Meanwhile, they can literally have billions located in a rat’s nest of offshore accounts circumnavigating the globe.

I looked around and saw some traders and clients who were very calm when the prices of their shares rose.  The first time I saw this was on the desk at my firm.   

Here’s what I witnessed and it would change the way I think about the markets forever.

It Happened One Day when one of Elliott’s clients came into town from Miami the man was an ex-market maker he punched out of the brokerage business and now was freelancing working for Elliott’s largest client. His job was to maintain an orderly market for all of the companies that Elliott’s client consulted for.  

The man came into Elliot’s office and literally took over his trader and all their phones. Also, he pulled out a few cellphones and started making calls and instruction Steve the trader to start moving orders in and out of various stocks.  As Steve did so the phones would light up with reports from the market makers on what had been executed. Steve would verbally call out those fills to Miami and he would bark back adjustments.  “Ok move NITE up give NAIB 2k on that offer, then move WDCO back off the bid” and it would go on.  He was moving market makers around like chess pieces, only playing 6 different games simultaneously as he was making the market look a certain way in six different companies at the same time.

It was like watching Walter Payton play running back, I knew this is what I had to learn.

If you like to hear more of these “tales from JJ’s past” he teaches and trades live at http://www.Microefutures.com / http://www.EquitiesETC.com

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Mariana Hincapie – Millionaire Trader

QUESTION - Thank you for taking the time to participate in the Q & A session. Would you like to share with everyone who you are, your background (current and previous career, education, etc). And your journey to becoming a Millionaire Trader in such a short period of time.


My name is Mariana Hincapie and i started trading right after i finished high school in 2018 i wasnt very passionate at first but eventually I started getting into it more and more when i gained more experience. I got into trading from my dad when he would give me financial articles to learn from and helped me in every way to have an independent job for myself, he never went to college and i followed in the same footsteps as he also did, i found tim sykes in his articles and since then i have been in the challenge learning as much as i could, i started using very little size and started full time day trading in september 2019 just getting my feet wet and
lost about 3-5k in the first few months without knowing since i still had no real education on the platforms and such, i started being primarily an OTC trader and also traded too much so i took too many trades and the losses piled up with commissions did not make that easy, when i figured out what i was doing wrong i stopped taking trades just because but instead i started focusing on patterns that i wanted to learn, first one being breakouts then first red days then panic dip buys and first green day all otc and i took as many trades as i could to get a feel of every strategy, around january a year later i had taken a little over 1k trades which got me over 100k profits, now it was time to maximinze since the market got very hot in otc land in those 1k trades to find
out what really worked for me, panic dip buys and i sized up maybe 10x more than i would in previous months $TSNP $OZSC $ENZC $INND which resulted in a +$626,200 dollar month and to this current day the best month ive ever had, so that was the main contributor the OTC market as hot as possible and preparation with sizing up after practicing for the past year mainly on the panic strategy.
QUESTION - Now I know some of our readers are going to be skeptical of you making a million dollars trading. How would you respond to them. And how would you respond to those who sincerely want to know how you acheived this.


For the haters and doubters, stop finding excuses on why you can't do it too and dont try to bring people down, my best advice is to be positive towards others, and instead dedicate yourself and be inspired, and for those who believe i achieved with hard work and long days, sizing up when the time is right being prepared and taking as many practive trades with little risk as i could until i
found my pattern and ymy trading personality. 
QUESTION - Do you feel you get treated and looked upon differently in the trading community since you are a woman. And do you consider yourself a role model to other women traders?


I definitely feel different in the trading community, i have a good example lets pretend that we are at a third grade playground, and there are 10 little boys at the swings and around but one of the girls wants to come up and also try and use the swing, will the girl be comfortable? How will the little boys react? Probably “girls have cuties” and leave well the same thing happens when there is a new girl that has never happened before and all the guys already have their groups, i dont blame anybody for not inviting me haha it just happens and i understood that since the beginning which is why i have tried my best to talk to as many girls as i can
in the trading community, we actually now have an all girls chatroom, and regular zoom calls where we check up on each other, i do see myself as a role model and i love it because i never had that girl inspiration when i started and it makes it more difficult to believe but now i see tons of girls commenting on my twitter and tons starting to trade, and i love it.

QUESTION- Now some non training questions. What personal or professional failure/setback have you experienced in your life that has set you up for this success? 


I lived in colombia right before i got into trading and there i was able to see what hard work really is but with no reward, the payment is for less than $10 USD a day, and for me i thought was hard to see since some worked from 6-9pm and i never worked but i did have to help out in my cousins shop and i was there so much and the work that goes on behind closed doors i didnt want to live for myself, i wanted to go back and keep trying trading to see if it would work because i know the potential it has. 
QUESTION : This is becoming a favorite question for many - plus readers get some good gift ideas from it. What purchase of less than $100 have you made in the past year that you simple could not live without now?


Honestly for me, the people that know me know that i cant live without my vaseline, i hate chapped lips, so i have one in my office in
my room in my purse and in my car.

QUESTION - If you could choose three dinner guests dead or alive, who would they be and why?

 Three dinner guests: 

Jesse livermore: I can't think of anyone else that would show me market experience, market cycles and how to deal with emotional barries better than him, being through all of it also when trading was more difficult, less technologically advanced. I would like to get a feel of those times and also get more tips on how to deal with big losses.


Elon musk: diversification and dedication, one of the greatest icons of our time, very modern so i would like to have a guest with very technologically advanced mindset now that i have one that teaches me about the past id like to get an idea of the future and how to think big, how to grow a successful business. 

David Goggins: i gotta have an inspirational speaker, no brainer, who else than him to get me started with the right mindset

QUESTION - You just recently took your parents to Italy on vacation. Were they always supportive of your choice to get into trading?


My parents as i mentioned earlier have been the most supportive parents in the world, my dad was the one that introduced me to trading and mom brings the discipline and the emotional support, so my dad one of the best things he ever told me was “treat it like college” “you dint have to make money” and im so glad i took them to italy because thay wasmt the original plan it was actually for me to return, but when i was already there it was just so beautiful theft deserved to be with me there also, so i booked them a flight and they were so happy about it.

QUESTION - What advice would you give to your younger self and to someone just coming out of school (college or high school)


The advice i would give to myself is be more confident, because i lacked that the most and when i was starting out that hurt me since it would be more mentally demoralizing for me. 

QUESTION - Timothy Sykes has a love/hate relationship with many. Some love him, others hate him. Since you know him closely, why insights can you give us on Sykes that the general public may not know?


I love tim, so genuine, a very caring person, also eats a lot of food, ive never had one time where i havent gotten inspired by his work dedication, he is definitely the hardest worker i know, and also is always very happy to be around us, very willing to help and guide, he is tough but when he needs to be, his teachings have worked for 20+ years so i dont see why so many haters if they could just turn it around there would be more millionaires, with the right market and the right teacher everything works perfect, also he rewards with beautiful scenery. 

QUESTION  - If you could have a big billboard with your favorite saying or message on it, what would it be. 


“GOOD THINGS, TAKE TIME” one of my all time favorite quotes, nothing related to trading better than this quote, and to life in general, everything worth doing takes effort, dedication, love, passion, a lot of hard work, because if it wasnt hard it is not the best in most cases. You get rewarded but only after you have mastered your skill and that will not be overnight.
 
QUESTION-  Thank you  for taking the time for this interview. How can our readers contact you, including on social media. And is there anything else you like for our readers to know about you?

Contact me:


Twitter: mari_trades

Instagram: mari_hincapiee

Email: marianawork@yahoo.com



Beyond The Trades is being sponsored by the www.Microefutures.com / EquitiesETC.com Trading Community
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James Clear Q&A Interview

James Clear dishes out life-changing insights like they’re T-shirts on a college campus. He is the author of the bestselling book, Atomic Habits. Interview is courtesy of our friends at Morning Brew.

We tried not to bite our nails as we asked James all about building (and breaking) habits.

What is one of your ideas that most resonates with your audience?

There are probably two. The first is the idea of systems over goals, or rather than worrying about the outcome, focusing on the process and building better habits each day. The line that people bring up a lot from the book is, “You don’t rise to the level of your goals, you fall to the level of your systems.” 

The other one that has gone over well is what I call “identity-based habits.” Rather than worrying about the results you want, focus on becoming the type of person who could achieve those results. So instead of worrying about losing 40 pounds, focus on being the kind of person who doesn’t miss workouts. Or rather than worrying about finishing the novel, focus on being the kind of person who writes every day.

Many people have been working from home for 18 months. Do you think that’s made it more difficult to develop habits? 

One of the things that makes it hard to stick to a habit is if you’re trying to do multiple habits in the same context. Say your couch is the place where you watch Netflix at 7pm, but you want to get in the habit of journaling each night. If you try to journal at 7pm on the couch you have this unconscious bias toward turning on the TV, because that’s what usually happens there. 

One of the benefits of going into an office is that you have a defined space for work habits to live. You can utilize that idea in a practical way, by trying to create defined spaces for certain habits. If you want to get into the habit of reading, you could have a reading chair in the corner of the room. And the only thing that happens there is when you sit there you read a book. And you gradually start to associate that behavior with that context. The more explicit you can be about where the habit occurs, and it always occurs in the same place in the same way, the more likely it is that the behavior will stick.

What did you learn about habit formation from being a college baseball pitcher? 

I learned a lot about the importance of pregame routines. Before every start in college I went through the same sequence about 40 minutes before the start of the game.

What ends up happening is that a switch flips in your mind and says, “Remember, it’s time to play now.” I think that helps not just with the physical part of the task—it helps with the mental part of the task. It helps get you in the right mindset to perform.

Translating that to what I do now, since Atomic Habits has blown up I’ve been asked to do a lot of keynote speeches. And I have a pregame routine before I walk out on stage.

What do you do? 

It usually starts with me getting a glass of water. I take a drink of water, go through the first minute of the talk in my head, and then I put my head down and have quiet time for 10 seconds or so. Then I get up, take a deep breath, and I’m ready to go.

Each of your newsletters contains two quotes. Do you have a favorite quote? 

I’m going to pick two but I do just want to say I have like 100. 

One is from my friend Morgan Housel: “Your personal experiences make up maybe 0.00000001% of what’s happened in the world but maybe 80% of how you think the world works. We’re all biased to our own personal history.”

The second one is from the investor Josh Wolfe, who said that the most useful advice he ever got was from James Watson, the scientist who helped discover DNA. Watson said three words with two meanings: “Avoid boring people.” I like that a lot because it means a) don’t hang out with boring people and b) don’t be boring yourself. Be interesting, be fascinating, do compelling things. 

Beyond The Trades is being Sponsored by our good friends at Microefutures.com & EquitiesETC.com

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The Sit Down Meeting

In the inauguration of Beyond The Trades “Sit Down” Meeting, Beyond The Trades Steve questions- often tough ones- the Confession Of A Market Maker duo all things life & their backgrounds: How did they met, where they grew up, is JJ remorseful for his past & plenty more questions the people wanted answered!

This is a must watch SIT DOWN Meeting…. Viewer Discretion Advised at https://youtu.be/xn-p5tEJ0Ag