Excerpts Writings From JJ @vwaptrader1, Trading Essays

Excerpt Writings from JJ @Vwaptrader1

ConfessionsOfaMarketMaker

The function of wholesale and other time frames in the market and their impact on price action.
(How to swim next to the shark instead of into its mouth)

(Footprint chart provided by null_antechamber)

When a market is trading up and down in a narrow range this type of price action is known as “chop”. As traders, we are taught to avoid this type of price action and for good reason. By the end of this, you should have an understanding of how and why “chop” occurs and how to position yourself on the right side of the trade once the opportunity presents itself.

Let us see why this type of price action occurs and how observing it can help you trade with the size players who move price in the market.

While price is moving in this up and down fashion larger timeframe players are building a position. Using the tools that we have, we can see where the position is being built and how the structural location of this position can tell you the agenda of the size traders who are building it.

In the graphics below is the structure in question. Here is some background: before the regular trading hours (RTH) of July 17, 2020, the overnight inventory was long. At about 35 minutes into the RTH session, ES began its downwards correction as trapped longs sold out near the overnight low. At this point, price cannot break the overnight nor the previous day low. This is a huge indication that the sellers who took price down are not OTF size sellers, but rather trapped long players who are selling out or having their stops taken out.

Market Profile (TPO charts) shows what business is transpiring. Now we must investigate how those size traders deal with this selling and how they later profit from it.

As the initial wave of selling starts to slow down, momentum traders see this and jump in and buy. The wholesale side of the business knows this and in order not to buy the momentum traders stock back and cut into their profits, they move bids up and down resulting in chop. (Also keep in mind when a market goes to areas like the overnight low, some traders who follow price will short here and there will be others that sell from long positions down here too.)

This order flow and the way the wholesale handles it is the mechanics of this business. By creating this back and forth price action the wholesalers are able to absorb all this selling order flow, consequently resulting in what we retail traders call CHOP.

Now we will see how the wholesalers resell this position back into retail buying as the selling subsides and is “taken into wholesale inventory” This is how the wholesaler makes their money as they provide liquidity to retail traders.

Screen Shot 2020-07-23 at 4.35.59 PM

The above is the market profile which shows selling has shot off down at 3196

Screen Shot 2020-07-23 at 4.37.07 PMScreen Shot 2020-07-23 at 4.37.15 PMScreen Shot 2020-07-23 at 4.37.20 PMScreen Shot 2020-07-23 at 4.37.32 PMScreen Shot 2020-07-23 at 4.37.37 PMScreen Shot 2020-07-23 at 4.37.44 PMScreen Shot 2020-07-23 at 4.37.48 PM

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Excerpts Writings From JJ @vwaptrader1, Trading Essays

Excerpts Writings from JJ @vwaptrader1

How the markets have become cleaner over time,  My confessions of Stealing order flow

Before the advent of online trading the markets were very opaque: very few people now know anything about order flow, back then even fewer did. Practically no one, including people who took companies public, knew how the mechanics of the market actually worked. For pirates of the over the counter and small-cap markets, it was heaven.

This gave rise to opportunity.  

If you had a company you took public and you were the financier you had a large position. In order to sell or dispose of that position, you need to create a market to sell it into.  This is where the Stock promoter came into play. He was hired by the inside shareholders to bring in buyers. He is given a position of say 5 million shares to use as he desires to create a market for the insiders, to say, sell 40-50 million shares.The promoter will start his campaign using all known methods of advertising to bring in buyers. When those buyers come in, their orders go to large market makers. If the large market makers do not know where to find a size seller they will move their bids up. We relied on the fact that 90% of promoters do not know how to trade or are too cheap to hire a specialist like me to manage the market. This is how we did it.

We identify deals with weak promoters and hunt their order flow. So if their stock is 1.00x 1.05 (bidxoffer) and a size buyer comes in, NITE the market maker would go bid 1.02. We would see that, call him and say “Oh we have an interest what you got?” “ I can pay the bid for 100k” he would reply. Sold!

We have just shorted 100,000 shares of a stock at 1.02. Now that bid drops and NITE goes back to say 98 cents. (under the best bid of $1).

Now for the fun part. 

We go and hit the bids HARD! You do this by hammering every bid on level 2(of course you tell your buddies to get out of the way first) then you slam it down. Once you break $1.00, you offer 200,000 shares at 98 cents and SHOW it, while you are hitting the bids. This scares the heck out of everyone, buyers scatter like pigeons, you take the stock down to close to 50 to 60 cents. You now call around looking for stock. “I can pay the bid for 150,000 shares”  The promoter will find out because you want him to. You have a market maker who is on neutral grounds call the promoters brokerage firm and show the bid; he will sell. He has too. He has gotten the stock for free and spent money to bring in buying. HE MUST SELL. You cover your short, a quick 50G booked and on to the next pillage!  All before lunch.

 JJ (@vwaptrader1) is the head educator and trader at highly popular Microefutures.com